Update for the week of November 1st, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Nov. 1st, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: October has come and gone for 2013 and there was no crash, phew - now back to business. Washington has played kick-the-can once again (with regard to its debt ceiling issues) and considering seasonality, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market work its way higher into both year end and that new political event (which will be at some in the early new year). Of course, the market never moves in a straight line but for the time being the trend continues to point higher for asset prices in general and especially so for equities in particular. Within a backdrop of relatively neutral Fed. policy and stable corporate earnings, this scenario may seem hard to understand. But given both energy and grain price weakness of late, it would seem the consumer is being given a break at both the grocery store and the gas pump which may explain a more enthusiastic macro economic picture.

Weekly highlight: As mentioned above, crude oil prices dropped appreciably over the course of the past week. So too have the by-products (heating oil & unleaded gas) suggesting North American energy demand may be waning at these lofty levels. Adding further weight to this thesis, Brent / WTI spreads have been widening of late suggesting the European economy is robust and local demand strong. Several macro issues are influencing energy prices too. From the unwinding of massive long positions by bankrupt Brazilian tycoons to the opening of new supply pipelines out of Cushing Oklahoma, there is no shortage of reasons for energy prices to have paused of late. While a few short term downside targets have been hit (small bear ab=cd on 2hr chart & weekly 50% level) several larger downside targets remain (large bear AB=CD on 2hr chart & key low tests on the daily and weekly chart). Rallies into resistance remain good shorting opportunities while panic sell-off lows remains speculative buying opportunities.

Personal journal: I am very proud of myself for exercising extream patients and discipline through my self imposed LTP. While I didn't knock the cover off the ball (up a net 30 ticks over the two week period) I did meet my simple requirement of trading like a professional for two consecutive weeks and only taking legitimate trading plan setups. I shut down twice through that period (hitting personal loss limit) but percerviered through the period and did indeed see that through consistency and focus, profits can be made. I feel as though TsT has been very patient with me and it is time for this little baby bird to fly.

Trading Plan: All trades from here on are LIVE. HVT setups where price has entered an OTE zone, momentum is currently in diveregence on 15m/3m, price is above or below daily Volprofile VH/VL and re-entering it and 3 bar 1m price reversal pattern as entry. All orders entered on an AOCO basis on the completion of 1m 3bar pattern at entry level. AOCO Stop at no more than -14, exit must be at least 1.5 times risk or +21 ticks. Order should rest near 38.2% retracement of prior move, PoC, Recent H/L. MUST SHUT DOWN on 2 initial losses or breach of 50% highwater mark on the day.
 

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current L&B trading plan:

 

Update for the week of October 18th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

Roll week - December Crude CLZ3
The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Oct. 18th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: The end to the current US Fed. government budget battle (and its associated debt ceiling issues) has come and gone. While many were worried, it does seem to me the current market action is nothing more than business as usual. The US dollar is looking rather 'toppy' here in itself and I am sitting here wondering if the 'risk-off' trade is slowly unwinding. Bonds look happier, stocks are still pointing up and economic barometers like Copper actually don't look too bad. Indeed, this year, like so many in the past, may see the snow come and with it some great buying opportunities. On a final note, through all of the mess in Washington, Sugar prices have moved considerably higher. OnlyDoubles trade blog subscribers have been given a really nice treat for less then a months work - who says there are no bull markets...

Weekly highlight: This past week saw price remain within a wide downwardly pointing channel inwhich successively lower lows and lower highs took us down. Considering the mounting technically bearish evidence (the daily chart alone has three significant downside price objectives working at the moment) one shouldn't be too surprised to see us trade to the bottom of the current 2 hour channel over the coming week or two. Indeed, October often comes with some surprises so I for one am in no hurry to make any serious commitments to the long side until we are comfortably into November.

Personal journal: Aside from one really bad mess-up, I have been doing really well of late. I have been disciplined and was making small amounts of money. Now for the mess-up. I had one bad day, Thursday, in which I hit my PLL and exceeded it (-43.5 ticks). I did three trades over the period of 8 minutes and basically broke all my trading plan rules. While I was in the trades I completely lost touch with my regiment and ignored lots of 'mixed' signs that in themselves would have prevented me from doing anything. I honestly felt possessed and only 'came to' when I was looking at a $435 loss and my entire positive balance erased.....remarkable. I shut down immediately after the third loss and spent the rest of the day very depressed. I did spend Friday chatting with peers and journaling. It was tough but it was also good to really analyze what happened. I need to plan the 'what happens if I am stopped' better. and I think I need to work on that 'rule' for a bit over the coming sessions...

Trading Plan: HVT setups where price has entered an OTE zone, momentum is currently in diveregence on 15m/3m, price is above or below daily Volprofile VH/VL and re-entering it and 3 bar 1m price reversal pattern as entry. All orders entered on an AOCO basis on the completion of 1m 3bar pattern at entry level. AOCO Stop at no more than -14, exit must be at least 1.5 times risk or +21 ticks. Order should rest near 38.2% retracement of prior move, PoC, Recent H/L. MUST SHUT DOWN on 2 initial losses or breach of 50% highwater mark on the day.
 

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current L&B trading plan:

Update for the week of October 11th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

For this week's post I thought I would do something a little different. I have broken this past week down by HVT setups. Each image is a 2hr, 15m and 1m with Fib's, MA's and notes. Each image should demonstrate 1. into or exceded OTE L/Sh ss, momentum divergence then 1 minute 3bar reversal pattern for entry. These charts do not include Volume Profile data but needless to say, all of these trade locations were either above or below 70% value lines. All of the setups performed well and hit their respective 1.5 x risk profit objectives. Indeed, the signals were so good, they often translated into substantial gains with little to no downside risk.

I am therefore going to concentrate my efforts in hunting these rather unique opportunities and will only consider trades for the coming week that meet the basic HVT model.

10/07/13

HVT Long 

 HVT Short

 10/08/13 

HVT Short

  

10/09/13

 

HVT Long

10/10/13

HVT Long

 HVT Short

 

10/11/13

HVT long setup came in but was more than 30 ticks risk so did not give trade consideration

Needless to say, it was both a busy and profitable week for HVT traders. Especially for those who could run multiple cars and on the exit of the 1st car, move stops on remaining 'freebies' to breakeven and then let the market go were it may...and oh boy, did it go in a couple cases....

These setups are my bread and butter and I will be hunting for them through the entire week. I shall try and post a 3pic summary (like above) when I see one pop up.

Cheers

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Update for the week of October 4th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Oct. 4th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: Most of the major currency pairs spent the week extending previously established directions vs. the greenback as there were few new commodity trends established through the first week of Q4\'13. Since it is the new quarter, I for one shall be watching to see if that continues through the entire \'1st 2 weeks\' of the quarter (to get an idea of where fund managers are putting their money to work). Looking at the market from a broader perspective, stocks look very over extended while bonds have yet to really turn higher in earnest. October has historically seen some wild gyrations through its end, shall this go round be any different? That is too hard to tell at this point but I for one would not considering any purchases of significance until after it starts to snow and/or we hear some serious crying. 

Weekly highlight: This past week saw both the daily bear ab=cd target (102.08) and the daily 50% level (101.26) get hit. Indeed, shortly thereafter a substantial 2 hour double bottom was registered on the test of the 101.05 level. That price pattern seemed to confirm a bearish crab suggesting a point d. target of 105.28 going forward. Interestingly, I couldn't find too many bulls around through that bottoming process which suggests to me this market could move higher for a bit. However, a 'bearish crab' is a short harmonic pattern setup and any failure after the 105.28 level is hit should represent a significant selling window.

Personal journal:I am finding trading tough of late. The market is not trending so as a result, Brian the trend follower, just isn't doing much. I did not hit my personal goal this past week as I had a net losing balance. This is my only real goal for the coming week - to finish with a net positive balance on the week.

Trading Plan: While the market goes through this seasonally challenging time of year plus a US Federal Government shutdown, I can clearly see the fluidity of continuation patterns has been suspect. 'BoT' trading has been tough and I find through these 'non-trending' markets, the HVT setup seems to be the only one that keeps one out of trouble. I therefore am going to implement a hybrid of the OTE Short Sweet Spot / Momentum Divergence / HVT  setup for the next week. I shall only be taking these setups and my goal is to only take 3-5 trades through the coming week specifically off this setup.

 

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current '$30k' trading plan:

Update for the week of September 27th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Sept. 27th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: In a stunning reversal, the US Dollar index has registered a violent bear ab=cd breakdown over the past two weeks. In recent comments, US Fed. officials have been far less hawkish on 'tapering' and as a result almost every world currency pair has benefited. Indeed, our two commodity proxies (the Cdn. and Aussie dollars) have shown particular strength suggesting international commodity demand is still quite robust. Additionally, European currencies look quite attractive after their long slide too. While many commodity sectors look a lot healthier, energy and grain prices continue to lag. In the former, Rbob continues to pressure that sector as we exit the summer driving season. In the later, historic US harvest numbers are understandably weighing on prices. Interestingly though, Cattle prices have hit their anticipated upside objectives and there are early signs of bottoming action in Wheat; both suggesting their respective sector trends may be soon drawing to an end.

Weekly highlight: With the market's focus back on the pending US debt ceiling vote, prices quickly retreated from their exaggerated levels coming out of the summer and through what I consider to be a complete distraction - Syria. Indeed, we now have a confirmed double top working on the daily charts (with the move through the significant lows of 103.74) and the breakdown also tripped up the weekly stop level (102.22). If not overtly bearish, recent weakness does suggesting internal weakness to the up trend. Considering the 2hr double bottom at the 102.20 level, my expectations are for a little bit of 'cleaning up' over the coming sessions. While I could see a further short term push down to test those lows, current resistance appears to be in and around the 105 to 106 level and I for one shall be watching the market's reaction once we reach that level for shorting ideas.

Personal journal: I have been trading my live/practice account like it is 'real' money for the past month and a half as I make my way through the transition from Combine trading to actually trading other peoples money in earnest. I wanted to get back into a 'groove' and over the past couple of weeks I have had steadily worked towards putting together weekly net gains. I am only now starting to feel comfortable considering trades on a real basis. As long as I keep to my rigid model/trading plan setups, I have relatively low anxiety and am comfortable living with the results. I am especially pleased at the addition of 'HVT setups' to my daily trading plan. These enable me to participate in 'range' days and seem to have a very high probability of success.

Trading Plan: For the week, my plan is to follow my daily trading plan and only take legitimate setups. Since my account is so small, I can only realistically risk 7.5 ticks on any one trade. So I must from now on, identify the setups (and their appropriate stop levels) and only put the trade on where I can risk 7 ticks (plus a half tick for commissions). This will greatly reduce my trading but because I have a maximum risk of $1500 and Rule #2 of investing says never risk more than 5% of your trading stake on any one single idea, $75 is the number I have to work with. I can be wrong 2 times in a row in any one given day and must shut down if I exceed $150 in losses.

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current '$30k' trading plan:

Update for the week of September 13th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Sept. 13th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

 

Market Overview: In a potentially bullish turn for commodity prices in general, both the Cdn. $ and the Aussie $ staged nice rallies through the past week. At the same time many stock indices pressed higher too. Indeed, some have \'blow-off-top\' written all over them. While longer dated maturities have yet to turn, short term paper strength (falling yields) suggest a soft landing through this Fed. hawkish cycle. Market corrections feel like buying opportunities and considering the seasonal window we are in, we may get a juicy one over the coming weeks.

Weekly highlight: As talk quickly turned to plans for a 'disarmament' of Syrian chemical weapons, prices retreated from the lofty levels seen late last week, Indeed, it would seem the war premium has been taken out of Crude as they brought her back down to within a whisker of the OTE long sweet spot. After some rather dramatic tails on the 2hr chart price stabilized with the 50% level turning into an interesting pivot. We finished the week sideways and rather well contained within a price channel.

Personal journal: I have been trying to 'get back in the grove' for the past 5 weeks and have not been able to. I am getting concerned but will patiently wait for a positive feeling to come back to my trading before I start placing any 'real' trades.

Trading Plan: I must be a bit more selective in my trade decisions. With this in mind, I must have a working 'BoT' trade on both the 2hr and the 15m charts before I can consider even looking for 3minute setups. This will mean I man not trade that much over the coming week but will fill the time practicing Hoag's value trade idea/model.

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

August, 2013 $30k 'live' trading plan:

Update for the week of August 30th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of August 30th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

 

Market Overview: Labour Day weekend 2013 is finally here and with it comes a nice break and hopefully a resumption of relatively \'normal\' trading environments once on the other side. The summer session itself was rather lack-luster and produced few new trends in what felt like a counter trend trade environment. Should the pre-May prevailing trends resume, September and October may be tough months for commodity bulls. Once on the other side of the pending seasonally weak period, prices may look attractive heading into 2014. That is a long way away from now and my number one short term goal will be to have conservative expectations until we are well into November.

Weekly highlight: The last week of August, 2013 was witness to an almost parabolic move higher to begin with and then just as violent of a move back down to end. Political rhetoric put in a short term bottom through Friday's session but unless there is some serious military action, prices may continue to give back ground as we finished the week still above the 2 hour OTE long sweet spot. Once into that zone, I for one shall be looking for some sort of counter trend (dead-cat-bounce) rally.

Personal journal: I have spent the past year and a half interviewing for this position. I have now been hired - I just have to go out and do what I am good at and enjoy the experience.

Trading Plan: Since I am now 'live', trader discipline has been slowly coming back. I have a reliable model to work with and am comfortable hunting those setups. Since there are no longer any combine objectives to cloud my investment decisions, my only goal is to slowly build both my capital base and mental capital through September by taking valid trade setups and following my model's strict trade management rules. Max risk on any given day is $300 and my goal is to take 3 to 4 valid trade setups through any given day. My weekly goal is to take 50 ticks in net profit.

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

August, 2013 $30k 'live' trading plan: