CLX12 - Update for September 28th, 2012

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog. Price analysis you see is CLX12, for the week of September 28th, 2012:

Market Overview:  The much anticipated November US Presidential election and the very worrisome 'fiscal cliff' are quickly approaching and one can see the market setting itself up for the event. Interestingly, equity markets seem to be 'going parabolic' into the event while the US dollar is consolidating. Crude Oil itself recently pushed up to the psychologically important $100/barrel level only to back off just as quickly. Given energy's significant role within the electoral process, one has to wonder if a little 'tinkering' has gone on of late by those in power to remain in power. Regardless, the summer seasonally long trade in the energies has come and gone; now it appears it's time to do some back-filling...

Weekly highlight: This past week saw a bit of a consolidation and then another push lower. The latest push confirmed a rather nasty daily bear ab=cd pattern suggesting that the bears are firmly in control for the time being.

Trading Strategy (1 month): This past week saw further price consolidation with a now confirmed (and very steap) bearish ab=cd price pattern working. As long as 93.84 is not taken out, I shall be looking for prices to continue to slip until the bear ab=cd target of 84.07 has been hit.

Mental State Review: I was and continue to be frustrated at inability to get into a position at 1hr/4hr turning points and hold on. I am currently a good 'scratch' trader (meaning I manage risk well and am consistently marginally profitable). The question is, how do I take the next step? I am determined and focused, it is just a question of getting the process down and continually repeating the same thing. I often find I drift and this gets me into danger. Less drifty....more focusy

Trading Plan for this coming week: Watching for and using 'OTE' setups to identify buying and selling opportunities at key support/resistance levels on the 60m/4hour charts. Once trade zones are entered, drill down to 5m/15m for OTE entry points and follow the trade process.

Picture everyday my ideal trade....looking for momentum divergences at or near OTE zones on 1hr/4hr charts; tight reversal, clean additional OTE entry signals on shorter time frames where tgt is +.42 and stop is -.21.... 

Trade Process: b/s 1 aoco (-.21/+.41) at 5m OTE entry levels where prev. peak (+/-.10) is no greater than 21 ticks....three wrong trades in a row = -$645.00 and end of day

Focus for the week: lets get back to the plan, it works but it takes discipline...

That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/