CLV12 - Update for September 14th, 2012

Price analysis for the week of September 14th, 2012:

Market Overview:  QE3 has hit the US dollar index with vengeance. As a result, most commodity prices appreciated over the past sessions with Crude Oil being no exception. As we approach the highly anticipated November US Presidential elections it appears a bit of a 'blow-off' top seems to be building. One can only ponder at what lays ahead of us once on the other side of that event. Should the political landscape be little changed come the end of November, the 'fiscal cliff' will be fast approaching and what may appear as prudent austerity may lead us all into outright depression. it is little wonder to this market prognosticator that the US Fed is trying to front load the economy in anticipation of such an event...

Weekly highlight: This past week saw a breakout through the high end of our recent trading range (97.70 area) and a subsequent move up above the psychologically significant BFRN (big fat round number) of $100.00. Considering the key weekly low of $100.68 was not breached and we settled the week back below $100.00, a test of the recent trading range breakout area (again the 97.70 area) ought to be tested over the short term.

Trading Strategy (1 month): As has been the case for a few months now, the daily chart continues to point higher so my bias remains to the upside. As well as the existing bull ab=cd target of $102.50, the breakout through 98.29 suggests we have another bullish ab=cd target of $105.04 to work with going forward. Consider too the pending US elections in early November and it is tough for me to make the argument for a serious correction over the coming few weeks. Pullbacks in my opinion are still buying opportunities.

Trading Plan for this coming week: This past week I felt more comfortable with the process. Use 'OTE' setup to identify buying and selling opportunities at key support/resistance levels on the 60m/4hour charts. Once trade zones are entered, drill down to 5m/1m for OTE entry points and follow the process.

Picture everyday my ideal trade....looking for complete washout at or near OTE/HG zones on 1hr/4hr charts. 

b1 aoco (-.21/+.41)....If system is 70% accurate. in 10 trades net ret. = 2835 - 645 = +2190.00

Focus for the week: Stick to the trading plan.....do your research, pick your marks to watch for and act accordingly at those marks...stick to the plan.

That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/