Market
Overview:
On the heels of a
better then expected US Employment situation report money flowed out of
almost every corner and back into the US. The Fed has gotten what it has
wanted, employment is turning and investment dollars are returning to
North America. Indeed, even the Canadian dollar managed to 'catch a
bid' due to a very strong uptick in its respective employment report.
Considering Australia's significant export problem in the face of the
collapsing Yen, might there be an long Loonie / short Aussie spread
trade in the making here? Weather it be deliberate devaluation or simply
an issue of money flows, there currently exists an atmosphere of a race
to devalue and as pointed out in this week's CTS Blog Spotlight, this
growing inertia may translate into some very big moves.
Weekly highlight:
Weekly highlight:
As
for Crude Oil itself, prices seem to stabilize this past week. While inventories were relatively bearish, the market kept pressing higher. A wide four hour double bottom was registered on the move through $91.17 midweek and closed Friday on a strong note right at the 50% retracement level of the entire slide. That firm close confirmed a four hour bullish ab=cd price pattern. That patterns implies an upside price target of $93.06. Should that upside inertia hold, additional upside targets include the previous significant peak at $94.46 and the daily price gap at $95.03 (from February) that really ought to be filled in at some point down the road.
Trading Strategy (1 week):
Trading Strategy (1 week):
BoT
(Break out Trades) I am very comfortable working with my
15m charts and playing double bottoms & tops for moves to either 50%
levels or OTE sweet spots. Ideally BoT entries come at or near hourly
OTE ss levels. The key with BoT's
of late seems to be to only enter a position on a touch of the 13ema
following the double top/bottom. Most trades take less than 10 ticks of
heat and easily move +30 ticks in the trend's favor. So with this in
mind, my trading strategy is to concentrate on BoT entries at or near
hourly/4hr OTE levels. If this initial trade entry does not work and I
still have confidence in the 15 minute price pattern, I will take my 2nd
attempt at the trade at the OTE ss (level with stops 4 ticks below
previous significant low). The end reult of this second attempt will
mark the end of my trading day regardless. I will finish the day either
+$140 (+30 stop hit), +$250 (AOCO +41 hit) or $-310 (personal loss limit
hit). I want to focus on 5:30AM to 8:30AM trading
window and take every setup that occurs during this window of time.
Mental State Review:
Mental State Review:
I am ready to take the next step and now is the time. Stop making excuses and just trade the plan.
Trading Plan:
Trading Plan:
I floundered this past week and regressed. Valid setups came and went and one trade I did in particular wasn't even close to a 'trading plan' trade. To that end I want to concentrate on getting back into two weeks' ago mind set. I have four trading days left on my current combine. Here the are my commitments for the coming four trading sessions:
1. At 5:30 be at my post with daily sheet setup done and levels predetermined 2. Only consider trade to 60m price target with 1st attempt (15m BoT) & 2nd attempt (15 OTE) OR No Alignment = no trading.
3. Take 2 trades each day = 8 trades in total.
4. No Sim or prac account trading.
5, Hold every single trade to either -15 or +41 AOCO level / 60m target.
6. at 50% accuracy = $1640-$600 = +$1040...
On Friday I am going to take the day and review exactly what I did over the previous four days.
3. Take 2 trades each day = 8 trades in total.
4. No Sim or prac account trading.
5, Hold every single trade to either -15 or +41 AOCO level / 60m target.
6. at 50% accuracy = $1640-$600 = +$1040...
On Friday I am going to take the day and review exactly what I did over the previous four days.
Monday's Trade (1-1)
When I woke this AM, I was greeted with a nice 15 minute double bottom in price. This was coupled with an upwardly pointing hourly price chart and a previously well defined four hour bullish price target ($93.06). On a test of the 13ema (15m) I entered long (AOCO -15/+41) as my 1st Attempt (long) of the day at 91.75. Given 91.60 is my stop, I placed my 2nd Attempt (long) just above the double bottom lows (91.58). These two trades will represent my 'attempts' for today.
The test of the 13ema proved to be not enough to turn the market back up. My 1st Attempt (long) was stopped out at -15 (so $-155 net combine). My 2nd Attempt open order was placed a little too low and did not get filled on the initial burst lower. After consideration, I moved that order to the OTE ss level (91.65) and was filled at 91.67. This is my second attempt at trading this AM. Regardless of outcome, this ismy last trade in the Combine trading for today.
That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/
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