CLM12 - Update for April 20, 2012

Price chart analysis for CLM12 for the week of 04/20/12:

 

(added Monday April 23)

(added Tues April 24)

(added Wed April 25)

(added Thurs April 26)

Market Overview: While historic highs in crude inventories and a cooling of international tensions has blunted the dramatic move higher in price seen over the winter od 2012, the daily correction in Crude oil is now greater than 30 days and feels like it wants to turn. While heating oil has topped, unleaded has yet to in earnest. Is there one more push high into the official kick off to the summer driving season (May 24 weekend)?

Trading Strategy: As with many commodity markets over the past few weeks, we have been drifting rather than trending in earnest. It is interesting to see recent CoT reports confirm the weekly and monthly bullish tone to the overall market. Sellers seem exhausted here so I shall be looking for a grind higher here into the seasonal peak of late May. A 50% retracement of the daily sell off would bring us back into the 106 area and I am still looking for a move to fill in the island top (gap at 107.85) at some point in the not too distant future. Having said that, if inventories continue to build, economic data continues to weigh and there is further talk of Fed Stimulus needed, price could easily fall back below $100/barrel. I will be watching Friday's late price action range (104.68-103.22) for an indication of where we might be headed in the near future.

That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca