Price chart analysis for CLM12 for the week of 04/27/12:
(Added Monday April 30th)
(Added Tuesday May 1st)
(Added Wednesday May 2nd)
(Added Thursday May 3rd)
Market Overview: The seasonal push into the official kick-off of the summer driving season (May 24 weekend) continues to produce bids for Crude. The bullish resolution (in the short term) on the weekly charts at key support suggests we can at least see a test of the late winter highs with a little less than a month to go in this bullish seasonal window. The pace of inventory builds has slowed but still sits at historically high levels suggesting there is a case to be made for a serious correction in price at some point down the road. That isn't now and given CoT's continued bullish stance, price may need to move higher for at least a few more weeks to come.
(Added Tuesday May 1st)
Market Overview: The seasonal push into the official kick-off of the summer driving season (May 24 weekend) continues to produce bids for Crude. The bullish resolution (in the short term) on the weekly charts at key support suggests we can at least see a test of the late winter highs with a little less than a month to go in this bullish seasonal window. The pace of inventory builds has slowed but still sits at historically high levels suggesting there is a case to be made for a serious correction in price at some point down the road. That isn't now and given CoT's continued bullish stance, price may need to move higher for at least a few more weeks to come.
Trading
Strategy (1 week): Sellers were indeed exhausted on that last leg down. Fib numbers suggest a move into the 105.50 area isn't out of the question in the short term with an ultimate blow off top coming in on a test of the daily 50% level around 106.25. The trend in the short term is higher but because of the volatile nature of Crude's trade, there is plenty of opportunity on the short side too. A move through 104.63 could produce a test of the 104 area and the 50% level is another $.60 lower than that. While I will be looking for long entry points (as long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows) I am not averse to shorting for a quick .10-.20 profit either. 104.63 and 105.00-105.06 shall be the marks I will be watching for Sunday evening & Monday morning.
Trading Strategy (1 month) While I do expect the market to fill the daily island gap at 107.64, I think that is in the weeks rather than days ahead . Additionally, I believe there is a lot of overhead resistance between 107.64 to 11.30 so one ought to be either taking profits or considering shorts should we spike up into that area. Sell in May and walk away...
That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
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