CLK12 - Update for April 13, 2012

Price chart analysis for CLK12 for the week of 04/13/12:

Market Overview: While the weekly and monthly charts continue to suggest higher prices, the daily chart has now been pointing lower for more than 20 days and we are still pointing down. For the past two weeks we have flirted with the weekly MA and have not broken down suggesting this are may represent a short term bottoming point. Should we fail through $100.98 a move to fill in the weekly gap at $98.67 shouldn't be unexpected. Fundamentally, warehouse stocks continue to sit at historic highs suggesting prices are not justified being so high. Indeed, through the past week Saudi ministers reiterated this fundamental message. However, given the seasonal pressures on unleaded gasoline and international tensions with Iran and North Korea, one may have to wait a bit for prices to correct in earnest.

Trading Strategy: While there may be a short term long trade through 102.95, one must respect the fact that this market has not bottomed in earnest. Should that bullish move come, a subsequent move above $103.38 would put prices back into the uptrend channel and would suggest a test $104.24. Conversely, should $102.61 be breached I will be looking for a serious test of the recent support lows at .45 & .39. Given it being Monday, I would look for a gap opening through the overnight trade and base my trend decision on how that gap plays itself out.

That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca