Price analysis for the week of July 13th, 2012:
Market
Overview: While we have yet to actually register a new working uptrend, there are growing signs the Crude Oil market wants to stop going down in price. Having said that, one wrong statement out of Europe and prices could fall dramatically. There are often little windows in the market when it is very risky to be long or short. In my opinion, this is such a time. 'Investors' ought to be very cautious over the coming six months as both fundamental and psychological changes are potentially on the horizon.
Trading Strategy (1 month): As has been suggested previously, some sort of technical bounce off the extreme lows of 77.28 ought to be expected going forward. Indeed, we have rallied more than $12.00 of the low and are currently sitting in a sort of 'no-man's land'.
Trading Plan for this coming week: Look for a resolution to the near term (60m) double top price pattern and a move back to the 60m 50% level (near $85.60). A break below $83.65 suggests $77.28 ought to be tested while a break above $88.98 suggests the $95.00 area is a realistic expectation. Until either of those levels is broken (on strong momentum) I shall consider this a trading range market and look to buy the bottoms and sell the tops.
Trading Plan for this coming week: Look for a resolution to the near term (60m) double top price pattern and a move back to the 60m 50% level (near $85.60). A break below $83.65 suggests $77.28 ought to be tested while a break above $88.98 suggests the $95.00 area is a realistic expectation. Until either of those levels is broken (on strong momentum) I shall consider this a trading range market and look to buy the bottoms and sell the tops.
Focus for the week: Continue to work
with using the hourly chart for targets/breakouts and the 9 period ema
on the 15m chart for entry points. Additionally, my primary goal for this coming week is 'process goals'. In that I want to create an algorithm trading style wherein the same process is repeated exactly the same way for every trade.
Process outline: On 15m signal, enter order (on stop) to take a position on 2 (two) contracts (AOCO.....-06 [for total risk of $130] / +10 & +40). Once filled there will be an automatic exit order entered on 1 (one contract) at plus 10 ticks ($100) and one (1) at plus 40 ticks ($400). Once the first exit order is filled, the stop/loss on remaining one (1) contract is moved to b/e+1 tick....
That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/
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