Price analysis for the week of June 22nd, 2012:
Market
Overview: While the daily bearish AB=CD pattern is still active (target $76.33) Friday's violent reversal in price does suggest we are closer to the bottom of this trading range than the top. Considering the very normal nature of this seasonal correction, one does have to ask if this sell-off was getting a little over done. Was this a coordinated move on the part of money managers to square their short positions heading out of Q2'12 (Friday was the last trading day of the quarter)? Can the broader market rally be attributed to European leaders finally getting their collective heads around their banking crisis? Only time will tell, but I myself would be a bit reluctant to declare a bull market just yet. Considering too that we are now into the First 2 weeks of Q3'12, I myself will be watching more than trading as we see where international money managers expect this quarter's action to take us.
Trading Strategy (1 month): As previously suggested, considerable damage has been done to the Crude Oil bull. While we may see some violent price action over the coming sessions, it by no means signals we are heading up in earnest any time soon. I do expect some sort of 50% bounce of the spring sell-off (which ought to bring us back up into the low 90's) but after than my bullish expectations shall be dramatically curtailed.
Trading Plan for this coming week: Look for a consolidation of Friday's rather dramatic rally. Should we resolve higher, look for the daily resistance points to be tested in earnest ($85.89 & 87.32). Should we fail, look for a 50% retracement of the rally ($81.31) and if that fails look for a test of the bottom ($77.28).
Trading Plan for this coming week: Look for a consolidation of Friday's rather dramatic rally. Should we resolve higher, look for the daily resistance points to be tested in earnest ($85.89 & 87.32). Should we fail, look for a 50% retracement of the rally ($81.31) and if that fails look for a test of the bottom ($77.28).
Focus for the week: Continue to work with using the hourly chart for targets/breakouts and the 9 period ema on the 15m chart for entry points..
That's all for this post,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/
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