Update for the week of August 2nd, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of August 2nd, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: Now that the 'dog days of summer' are here it should come as no surprise to see the currency market go relatively quiet. The latest NFPR number out of the US didn't impress and suggests the recent consolidation in the greenback may continue for a little while longer. Interestingly, the Aussie dollar pushed to new lows suggesting the commodity correction may not be quite done yet. Indeed, it would appear the threat of a historically robust US fall harvest has brought grain prices down and suggests further price depreciation within that sector over the near term.

Weekly highlight: Prices literally jumped out of the gate this past week and didn't really look back until we approached its end. Interestingly, price was NOT able to take out the 2 hour double top high (108.93) high, suggesting the move was more of a low liquidity 'stop run' rather then a genuine bull rally. Bulls would have loved to see price take out those highs and then consolidate - but alas, that was not meant to be. Considering the time of year, it wouldn't surprise me to see some more of these wild price swings through the later part of the summer. The 2 hour OTE long sweet spot (box highlighted on 2 hour chart above) looks like an interesting area to stalk for long positions but until that level is hit, I shall be watching for bear ab=cd patterns (to trade off of) while we work our way down to that target area.
 
Personal highlight: After more than 15 months working at it, I have for the first time successfully completed a TsT 'combine'. I met the stated profit objectives, remained within the very strict risk control thresholds and even met TsT's internal trade report scouting criteria. I am therefore now ready to take the next step in becoming a professional futures trader. I am so proud of myself for 'sticking to it' and not giving up - wtg Brian!
$30k Combine Objectives (10 day)
Profit Objective $1500
> 45% winning days
Avg. hold time of winners longer then avg. losers
Avg. winner > avg. loser
max daily risk $500
max draw down $1500

Screenshot of my combine:

I will openly admit, as I got within earshot of the objectives, I slowed my trading down and took the last 3 days very cautiously. As a result, my profit performance stalled. I believe that the model would have produced far greater profits over the combine period had I just let it take all the valid setups. 

I don't exactly know what the next step is in my journey, but feel very confident in both my trading plan and my personal abilities to be able to take this very marketable skill anywhere opportunity presents itself. It has been a very hard road to travel and I am basking in its fruition.

Trading Plan: I shall talk with Top Step Trader management about what our next steps ought to be and will probably take the coming week to watch more than trade.

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

July, 2013 $30k trading plan: