Update for the week of July 26th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of July 19th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: As the summer doldrums role on we saw yet another week of relative quiet trade within the currency space. Indeed, many pairs look much better vs. the greenback as compared to just a few weeks ago. With little significant economic news until Labor day, one does have to look at the next month\'s price action with a bit of a skeptical eye. Is this period of calm setting us up for some serious fireworks come this fall? Elsewhere, grain prices continue to fall as the looming 2013 historically large harvest draws closer. With little news of drought or floods, the market is now pricing in a very big crop.

Weekly highlight: This past week saw the market slowly take back a large portion of the blow off top that took us up above $108. As pointed out previously, that level was a significant bullish price objective so it shouldn't have come as too big of a surprise to see us consolidate the rather impressive gains seen over the past few weeks. Two significant short term targets remain to the downside (the 'C' point low of 103.73 and the Daily gap at 103.31) and shall be my bearish target area for the coming week. A 50% retracement of the sell off (assuming these lows hold) would take us up into the 106 to 107 area and that shall be my bullish target area for the coming week.
 

Trading Plan: For this coming week I plan to trade at least 3 of the upcoming 5 possible sessions and only once per trading time frame. I booked 31 ticks in profits last week (trading 2 of a possible 5 sessions and once per day) and need just 5 ticks net to reach my current combine's profit goal. All trade considerations will be of the AB=CD model setup and will follow strict trade management rules. I shall risk being wrong only once per trading day and will only risk 11 ticks per trade. This will equate to a total of 3 trades for the coming week. Follow the model, take valid setups and move stops according to preset rules...

Probable outcomes:

0% - 3/3 (3 x -11.5) =  -34.5 ticks (miss combine objective by 30 ticks - qualify for roll over)

33% - 1/3 (2 x -11.5) + (1 x  20) = -3 ticks (miss combine objective by 8 ticks - qualify for roll over)

66% - 2/3 (1 x -11.5) + (2 x 20) = +37.5 ticks (meet combine objective - take next step with TsT)

100% - 3/3 3 x 20 = +60 ticks (meet combine objective - take next step with TsT)

I will admit, if I hit the profit objective on either the first or second day, I will probably book 1 tick losses for any remaining days to ensure success.

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

July, 2013 $30k trading plan: