Update for the week of July 19th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of July 19th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: There was little significant change seen across currency land this past week suggesting recent price action is range bound for the time being. Seemingly cheering this relative calm, commodity markets continued the general bounce coming out of the 1st 2wks of Q3\'13. Energy prices seem to be leading the surge of late as Crude Oil has hit and exceeded both daily and weekly price objectives. Of particular note this week, Cotton looks to be setting up an interesting weekly long AB=CD pattern and presenting a 3:1 reward to risk trade - something for CRI\'s OnlyDoubles Trade blog to take a serious look at.

Weekly highlight: Price steadily marched higher over the course of last week ultimately hitting the rather well defined Bull ab=cd price objective of 108.05. Indeed, price spike momentarily higher, only to fail through the course of Friday's weekly options expiry and industry's roll out of August and into September contracts.

While upside price objectives have been hit and even exceeded on all three time frame charts referenced above (120 minute, Daily and Weekly) both the daily and weekly charts are firmly pointing up and could still move higher should the economic data and or geopolitical news warrant.  I shall be looking initially for a test of the 106 area (120 minute 50% level and key lows) but should that level fail a nice test of the uptrend line (outlined on the 120 minute chart above) corresponds with the 1-4 hour OTE long sweet spot and would be an ideal level to consider getting back in on the long side of this market.
 

Trading Plan: Along with my very strict momentum model setup I now use a harmonic ab=cd price pattern setup. Both models are conservative and relatively reliable (far greater than 50% accuracy). 

For this coming week I plan to trade at least once per trading time frame. I don't expect a strict momentum trade to develop and anticipate all trades to be of the ab=cd model. My goal for the week is to net 50 ticks. I will not risk more than 20 ticks per trading day. Follow the model, take valid setups and move stops according to preset rules...

expected 20-30 tick reward (25)

expected risk 10-15 (12.5)

expected trades: 10

expected performance 60%

6 x 25 = 150

4 x 12.5 =  50

= +100 ticks

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

July 21, 2013 L&B $30k combine trading plan:

Cheers