Update for the week of June 28th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is daily, weekly, 180 minute charts with term structure and CoT summary for the week of July 05th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:

Market Overview: The US Dollar forged to new highs this past week on optimism about the US economy and the prospects for higher not lower US interest rates going forward. Additionally, the greenback has caught a \'fear bid\' as it appears instability within Egypt has once again captured the world\'s attention. Interestingly, NyMex Crude Oil surged (on that instability) & hit its weekly upside price target - seemingly the only bullish commodity chart I can see at the moment. As has been previously highlighted, both the commodity currencies (the Aussie & Cdn. dollars) continue to see heavy downside pressure. Indeed, the two appear to be the focus of this latest round of global currency re-balancing as the world\'s appetite for commodities in general wanes.

Weekly highlight: Large institutions appear to finnally be getting paid for their recent overt bullishness. Prices moved dramatically higher through the week as the double bottom form late last week held and extended through the all important 99.21 peak (from June 19th). Several bullish ab=cd price patters appear to be at work suggesting futher upside price pressure is in the works for the coming sessions. Considering too, that this is the first two weeks of Q3'13, fund managers appear to be loading up on Crude oil in particular as price has basically moved straight up through the entire first week of the quarter. It shall be interesting to see if price calms through the end of this week or if we continue at this torid pace.

It is very important to note, given the light holiday sessions and the end of Q2'13, I would be reluctant to hold any position or significant bias in earnest until we are on the other side of the holiday and indeed, the first two weeks of Q3'13.
 

Trading Plan: Along with my very strict momentum model setup I added a play/setup off harmonic ab=cd price patterns.Both models are conservative and relatively reliable (far greater than 50% accuracy) so I am very excited about my new combine that shall start Monday morning. Follow the models, take valid setups and move stops according to preset rules...

That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

July, 2013 L&B $30k combine trading plan:

Monday July 8th:
Today was a productive day (3/3) for +17.5 ticks net. For those interested, here is a picture of a bullish AB=CD Harmonic Price pattern and the 'bot' trade entry setup: